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The European Financial Management was founded in 1994 by Dr. John Doukas to serve as a high quality refereed publication outlet that publishes significant new research as it relates to European corporations, financial institutions and capital markets. The EFM journal is published in five issues per year [January, March, June, September and November ] and its acceptance rate is about 3%. The June issue is based on the Keynote Address and a small set of articles selected from the papers presented at the Annual Meetings of the European Financial Management Association. The articles published in the EFM journal are indexed and abstracted in the Social Science Citation Index.


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Newly Accepted Papers




Bank Risk Dynamics Where Assets are Risky Debt Claims


Sharon Peleg and Alon Raviv


Abstract:
The structural approach views firm’s equity as a call option on the value of its assets, which motivates stockholders to increase risk. However, since bank assets are risky debt claims, bank equity resembles a subordinated debt. Using this assumption, and considering the strategic interaction between a bank and its debtor, we argue that risk shifting is limited to states in which the debtor is in financial distress. Furthermore,risk shifting increases with bankruptcy costs and decreases with bank capital. Thus, increasing a bank’s capital affects stability, not only through the additional capital buffer, but also by affecting the risk shifting incentive.


Keywords: Risk taking, Asset risk, Financial institutions, Stress test, Leverage


JEL Classification: G21, G28, G32, G38



The Market Liquidity Timing Skills of Debt-Oriented Hedge Funds


Baibing Li, Ji Luo and Kai-Hong Tee


Abstract:
We investigate the liquidity timing skills of debt-oriented hedge funds following the 2008 credit crisis, which demonstrated the importance of understanding liquidity conditions to manage the market exposure of investments. We base the analysis on the estimated co-movements of fixed income and equity market liquidity. Our findings, which are statistically robust, show evidence of liquidity timing ability in the fixed income market for all debt-oriented hedge fund strategy categories. Joint market liquidity timing skill, however, is only found in some categories. Our findings suggest that debt-oriented hedge fund managers use a sophisticated set of timing strategies in their investment managements.


Keywords: Fixed income market; hedge funds; liquidity timing skill; market exposure


JEL Classification: G1; G11; G23



Endogenous Credit Spreads and Optimal Debt Financing Structure in the Presence of Liquidity Risk


Eva Luetkebohmert, Daniel Oeltz and Yajun Xiao


Abstract:
We present a structural model that allows a firm to effectively manage its exposure to both insolvency and illiquidity risk inherent in its financing structure. Besides insolvency risk, the firm is exposed to rollover risk through possible runs by short-term creditors. Moreover, asset price volatilities are subject to macro-economic shocks and influence creditors' risk attitudes and margin requirements. Credit spreads are derived endogenously depending on the firm's total default risk. Equity holders have to bear the rollover losses. An optimal debt structure that maximizes the firm's equity value is determined by trading off lower financing costs and higher rollover risk.


Keywords: funding liquidity, optimal capital structure, rollover risk, structural credit risk models


JEL Classification: G01, G32, G33



Financial Flexibility and Investment Ability Across the Euro Area and the UK


Annalisa Ferrando, Maria-Teresa Marchica, and Roberto Mura


Abstract:
We use a very large sample of European private and public firms to show that financial flexibility attained through a conservative leverage policy is more important for private, small-medium-sized, and young firms and for firms in countries with less access to credit and weaker investor protection. Further, using the 2007 financial crisis as a natural experiment, we show that a higher degree of financial flexibility allows firms to reduce the negative impact of liquidity shocks on investment. Our findings support the hypothesis that financial flexibility improves companies’ ability to undertake future investment, despite market frictions hampering possible growth opportunities.


Keywords: low leverage, financial flexibility, investment, cross-country analysis


JEL Classification:G31, G32, D92



Announcement Effects of Contingent Convertible Securities: Evidence from the Global Banking Industry


Manuel Ammann, Kristian Blickle and Christian Ehmann


Abstract:
This paper investigates the announcement effects of CoCo bonds issued by global banks between January 2009 and June 2014. Using a sample of 34 financial institutions, we examine abnormal stock price reactions and CDS spread changes before and after the announcement dates. We find that the announcement of CoCos correlates with positive abnormal stock returns and negative CDS spread changes in the immediate post-announcement period. We explain these effects with a set of theories including the lowered probability of costly bankruptcy proceedings, a signaling framework based on pecking order theory and the cost advantage of CoCos over equity (tax shield).


Keywords: contingent convertible securities, CoCo bonds, announcement effects, event study


JEL Classification: G01, G14, G21



Risk control: Who cares?


Nick Taylor


Abstract:
The performance of recently introduced risk-control indices is evaluated and tested with respect to a set of competing indices. Applying a method of moments methodology to these data reveals that the performance of strategies that track risk-control indices have economic and statistical significance to investors with realistic risk aversion parameter values. How- ever, this performance varies over time and appears to be determined by macroeconomic and liquidity conditions.


Keywords: Risk control, volatility, certainty equivalent return, method of moments


JEL Classification: G53, G11, G17



A Theoretical Model for the Term Structure of Corporate Credit based on Competitive Advantage


Myuran Rajaratnam, Bala Rajaratnam and Kanshukan Rajaratnam


Abstract:
We derive the term structure of Corporate Credit based on the Competitive Advantage of a firm and the tax deductibility of its interest payments. We consider the competitive advantage enjoyed by the firm as the central tenet of our model and capture its eventual demise in a probabilistic manner. We compensate the bond holder for expected losses and then provide an additional spread based on the tax deductibility of interest payments. Our simple intuitive model appears to overcome some of the well-known shortcomings of structural credit risk models.


Keywords: Term Structure, Corporate Credit, Competitive Advantage, Value-Investing, Credit Spread Puzzle


JEL Classification: EFM 340 Fixed Income; JEL G12 Bond Interest Rates



The Role of the Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis in VIX Index Valuation


Simon Lalancette and Jean-Guy Simonato


Abstract:
The CBOE VIX index is a widely recognised benchmark measure of expected stock market volatility. As shown in the literature, probability distributions other than Gaussian are key features required to describe the dynamics of the S&P 500, the variable that ultimately determines the VIX index level. As such, it is important to assess if deviations from the Gaussian distribution have important impacts on the VIX index level. We examine herein how a model articulated over a time-varying non-Gaussian distribution with conditional skewness and kurtosis can contribute to the overall explanation of the VIX dynamics.


Keywords: VIX, GARCH, skewness, kurtosis, risk-neutral valuation


JEL Classification: C58, G1



Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities


Daniel Giamouridis, Athanasios Sakkas, Nikolaos Tessaromatis


Abstract:
We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic multi-period portfolio choice problem of an investor with risky liabilities and time varying investment opportunities. We use the model to compare the asset allocation of investors who take liabilities into account, assuming time varying returns and a multi-period setting with the asset allocation of myopic ALM investors. In the absence of regulatory constraints on asset allocation weights, there are significant gains to investors who have access to a dynamic asset allocation model with liabilities. The gains are smaller under the typical funding ratio constraints faced by pension funds.


Keywords: Strategic Asset Allocation,Dynamic Asset Allocation, Asset-Liability Management, Return Predictability, Myopic Investors


JEL Classification: G11, G12, G23



Bankers on the Board and CEO Incentives


Min Jung Kang and Young (Andy) Kim


Abstract:
Governance improvement measures often demand more financial experts on corporate boards. Directors from the lending bank require particular attention because the conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders would be severe. Hence, we examine whether commercial banker directors work in the best interests of shareholders in providing incentives to the CEO. We find that the CEO’s compensation VEGA is lower if an affiliated banker director is on the board, especially when the director is the chair of the compensation committee. Further, commercial banker directors increase debt-like compensation and make it more sensitive to performance and less sensitive to risk.


Keywords: bankers on board, financial expertise, conflicts of interest, governance, board of directors, CEO compensation


JEL Classification: G14



Due Diligence and Investee Performance


Douglas Cumming and Simona Zambelli


Abstract:
We estimate the economic value of due diligence (DD) in the context of private equity by investigating the relationship between DD and investee performance, while controlling for endogeneity. With the adoption of a novel dataset, we find evidence highly consistent with the view that a thorough DD is associated with improved investee performance. We also distinguish the role of different types of DD and show that the DD performed by fund managers has a more pronounced impact on performance. Instead, the DD mainly performed by external agents, i.e., consultants, lawyers and accountants, gives rise to puzzling results and imperfect matching.


Keywords: Due Diligence, Governance, Performance, Private Equity


JEL Classification: G23, G24, G28



The Contagion versus Interdependence Controversy between Hedge Funds and Equity Markets


Tae Yoon Kim and Hee Soo Lee


Abstract:
This study considers the ‘contagion versus interdependence’ controversy between hedge funds and equity markets. We find that contagion effects break down the established interdependence between them and conditional return smoothing could play a key role in the contagion process by increasing or decreasing the contagion likelihood during crisis and prosperity. It is noted that the return smoothing tends to produce a biased pattern of returns during crisis and a decreased amount of return during prosperity. These findings are obtained by linking single equation error correction model to factor model and carrying out quantile regression, Z-test and Wald–Wolfowitz runs test.


Keywords: hedge funds; contagion; interdependence; conditional return smoothing, single equation error correction model; factor model


JEL Classification: G01, C22, C58



Asset Pricing Puzzles in an OLG Economy with Generalized Preferences


Amadeu DaSilva and Mira Farka


Abstract:
We seek to explain a number of asset pricing anomalies–the equity premium puzzle, the risk-free rate puzzle, and portfolio allocation puzzle–in a parsimonious overlapping generations model (OLG) with two key features: borrowing constraint and Epstein-Zin-Weil (1989) preference. The model is able to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions using reasonable values of parameters governing behavior. We find that the main driver of savings behavior, equity returns and asset allocation is the relative difference between the two parameters: the level of relative risk aversion and the inverse of the elasticity of substitution.


Keywords: Equity premium puzzle, Overlapping generations model, General- ized Preferences, Portfolio allocation.


JEL Classification: G0, G12, D10, E21.



Earnout Deals: Method of Initial Payment and Acquirers’ Gains


Leonidas Barbopoulos*, Krishna Paudyal, and Sudi Sudarsanam


Abstract:
We analyze the implications of initial payment methods in earnout deals on acquirers’ gains. The results, which are robust to self-selection bias and alternative model specifications, reveal that earnout deals outperform non-earnout deals. The acquirers gain the most from earnout deals when both initial and deferred payments are in stocks. The positive wealth effect of the choice of initial payment method in earnout deals is more prominent in cross-border deals than in domestic deals. Overall, the earnout deals generate higher gains when both the initial and deferred payments help spread the risk between the shareholders of acquiring and target firms.


Keywords: Earnout contracts; Initial payment in earnout deals; Asymmetric information; Acquirers’ gains.


JEL Classification: G34.



A Unified Theory of Forward- and Backward-looking M&As and Divestitures


Qing Ma and Susheng Wang


Abstract:
In a unified theory of forward- and backward-looking M&As and divestitures, an M&A today may be a cause for a divestiture in the future; conversely a divestiture today may be a consequence of an M&A in the past. M&As and divestitures are not only two sides of the same coin, they are also causes and consequences of each other. In this paper, in a two-period model, two firms consider integrating or separating in each period. We analyze forward- and backward- looking M&As and divestitures, and compare them with static M&As and divestitures.


Keywords: unified framework, forward looking, backward looking, M&A, divestiture


JEL Classification: G34



Income Uncertainty and the Decision to Invest in Bulk Shipping


Ioannis Kyriakou, Panos K. Pouliasis, Nikos C. Papapostolou, and Nikos K. Nomikos


Abstract:
We develop a coherent framework for valuing real assets and determining the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income, present a valuation paradigm for freight-linked assets and, using real option theory, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry in the shipping industry. We find that long-run freight rate and volatility affect the decision timing and investment value that diminishes with increasing vessel age. As time-to-build declines, the value of the option to wait increases implying a high opportunity cost embedded in the investment decision due to construction lags.


Keywords: real options, investment, uncertainty, contingent claims, shipping


JEL Classification: C13, C63, G13, G31, L92



Corporate Debt Maturity and Stock Price Crash Risk


Viet Anh Dang, Edward Lee, Yangke Liu, Cheng Zeng


Abstract:
We find that firms with a larger proportion of short-term debt have lower future stock price crash risk, consistent with short-term debt lenders playing an effective monitoring role in constraining managers’ bad-news-hoarding behavior. The inverse relation between short-maturity debt and future crash risk is more pronounced for firms that are harder to monitor due to weaker corporate governance, higher information asymmetry, and greater risk-taking. These findings suggest that short-term debt substitutes for other monitoring mechanisms in curbing managerial opportunism and reducing future crash risk. Our study implies that short-maturity debt not only preserves creditors’ interests, but also protects shareholders’ wealth.


Keywords: debt maturity, stock price crash risk, corporate governance, information asymmetry


JEL Classification: G3, G12, G14



Selling Winners, Buying Losers: Mental Decision Rules of Individual Investors on Their Holdings


Cristiana Cerqueira Leal, Gilberto Loureiro, and Manuel Armada


Abstract:
We extend the study of the disposition effect – the preference for selling (holding) current winning (losing) stocks- by adding a new element to this decision process: the investors’ preference to purchase additional units of the current losing stocks. Using a unique database, we find that individual investors prefer to sell their winning stocks and, simultaneously, hold and increase their exposure to the losing ones. The additional purchase is pervasive across investors, but stronger for less sophisticated investors. Our evidence suggests that reference prices, prior stock returns, stock visibility, and investor performance and sophistication are determinants of investors’ trading behavior.


Keywords: Disposition effect; additional purchase; portfolio choice; individual investors; mental accounting; trading decision.


JEL Classification: G02,G11,G14



Persistency of the Momentum Effect


Hong-Yi Chen, Pin-Huang Chou, and Chia-Hsun Hsieh


Abstract:
The intermediate-term momentum persistency is not universal among all stocks. More than 40% of winners and losers immediately fall out of their respective groups in the month following formation, resulting in a monthly loss of more than 17% for a momentum strategy constructed on such stocks. By contrast, persistent winners and losers, defined as those staying in their groups for at least one more month, exhibit much stronger momentum persistency. Further analysis indicates that, consistent with the delayed reaction hypothesis for price momentum, the persistency is stronger for stocks with greater information asymmetry and more extensively heterogeneous investor beliefs.


Keywords: delayed reaction hypothesis, duration, heterogeneous beliefs, information asymmetry, persistent momentum strategy


JEL Classification: G11, G14



Credit Risk in Italian Banks' Exposure to Non-Financial Firms


Matteo Accornero, Giuseppe Cascarino, Roberto Felici, Fabio Parlapiano, and Alberto Maria Sorre


Abstract:
This paper outlines a framework based on microdata and a structural model to gauge credit risk in banks’ exposures to non-financial firms. Sectoral risk factors are accounted for using a multi-factor model as prompted in Duellman and Masschelein (2006). We use expected and unexpected losses as indicators of credit risk stemming from the corporate sector as a whole, and we put forward a measure of systemic risk relevance of economic sectors. We apply the model to the Italian economy, showing the sensitivity of credit risk indicators to different characteristics of default risk, cyclicality and concentration of economic sectors.


Keywords: Credit risk, Sectoral risk, Systemic risk, Structural Multi-Factor Model


JEL Classification: G21, G32



The Mixed vs the Integrated Approach to Style Investing: Much Ado About Nothing


Markus Leippold and Roger Ruegg


Abstract:
We study the difference between the returns to the integrated approach to style investing and those to the mixed approach. Unlike the mixed approach, the integrated approach aggregates factor characteristics at security level. Recent literature finds that the integrated approach dominates the mixed approach. Using statistical tools for robust performance testing, we demystify these findings as a statistical fluke. We do not find any evidence favoring the integrated approach. What we do find is that the integrated approach exhibits a higher sensitivity to the low-risk anomaly. However, this reduction in risk does not lead to an improvement in performance.


Keywords: Factor investing, integrated and mixed approach, value, momentum, low volatility.


JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14



Non-Myopic Portfolio Choice with Unpredictable Returns: The Jump-to-Default Case


Anna Battauz and Alessandro Sbuelz


Abstract:
If a risky asset is subject to a jump-to-default event, the investment horizon affects the optimal portfolio rule, even if the asset returns are unpredictable. The optimal rule solves a non-linear differential equation that, by not depending on the investor's pre-default value function, allows for its direct computation. Importantly for financial planners offering portfolio advice for the long term, tiny amounts of constant jump-to-default risk induce marked time variation in the optimal portfolios of long-run conservative investors. Our results are robust to the introduction of multiple non-defaultable risky assets.


Keywords: Dynamic asset allocation, time-varying hedging portfolio, jump-to-default risk, return predictability, irreversible regime change


JEL Classification: G01, G11, G12, C61



Growth Options and Firm Valuation


Holger Kraft, Eduardo Schwartz and Farina Weiss


Abstract:
This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing firm-level volatility into its systematic and unsystematic part, we document that only idiosyncratic volatility has a significant effect on valuation. Second, we analyze the relation of stock returns to realized contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses. Sorting on idiosyncratic volatility yields a significant negative relation between portfolio alphas and contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility for non-R&D portfolios.


Keywords: Firm valuation, Real options, Volatility, R&D expenses, PCA


JEL Classification: G12



Sentiment, Order Imbalance and Co-movement. An Examination of Shocks to Retail and Institutional Trading Activity


Patricia Chelley-Steeley, Neophytos Lambertides, Christos S. Savva


Abstract:
Using order flow imbalance as a measure of sentiment we show that positive and negative shocks to sentiment lead to lower co-movement between portfolio and market returns in the post-shock period. Furthermore, an asymmetry is present as positive shocks to sentiment have less impact on co-movement changes than negative shocks. Moreover, shocks to retail sentiment and the sentiment of two types of institutional investors leads to a reduction in co-movement. Positive shocks to institutional order flow imbalance lead to smaller reductions in co-movement than associated with retail shocks. These effects exist even after controlling for firm specific and market-wide news.


Keywords: Order flow shock and sentiment, co-movement, smooth transition model


JEL Classification: G12, G14



The Effectiveness of Asset, Liability, and Equity Hedging Against the Catastrophe Risk: The Cases of Winter Storms in North America and Europe


Yang-Che Wu, and Ming Jing Yang


Abstract:
The winter storms in North America and Europe are responsible for the majority of the insured natural catastrophe losses. This study analyzes the effectiveness of insurers hedging against the winter storm risk in terms of asset (catastrophe derivatives), liability (catastrophe bonds), and equity (catastrophe equity puts) risk management perspectives. The analysis results of the various financial performances show that our suggested hedging strategies are effective based on the long-term positive profit and the improvement in the insolvency ratios. The conclusions of this study provide the insurers with the less volatile premiums and more diversified portfolios under the catastrophe risk management.


Keywords: Catastrophe Derivatives, Catastrophe Bonds, Catastrophe Equity Puts, Catastrophe Risk Management


JEL Classification: G32, G11, C15



Do Investment Banks Create Value for their Clients? Empirical Evidence from European Acquisitions


Johannes Kolb


Abstract:
Europe provides an interesting setting to explore the role that investment banks play in acquisitions because it is composed of countries with different legal regimes—the shareholder-oriented common law regime in the UK/Ireland and the stakeholder oriented civil law regime in Continental Europe. Since investment banks are hired to act in the interests of shareholders, and due to differences in disclosure requirements, market transparency, accounting standards and ownership between the UK and Continental Europe, I argue that investment banks are relatively more important in UK-only acquisitions. My findings support this conjecture.

Keywords: Hedge funds, private equity, alternative assets, portfolio choice, asset allocation


JEL Classification: G11, G14, G23



Intangible Assets and the Book-to-Market Effect


Hyuna Park


Abstract:
The book-to-market effect is well known, but prior research does not analyze the impact of goodwill and related transformations in accounting rules that may bring significant changes to the effect. This paper analyzes the impact of SFAS 142, Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets, issued in 2001. I find that the book-to-market effect is weaker in the post-SFAS 142 period especially in the firms that have goodwill, impairment loss or risk. The book-to-market effect is stronger for subsamples of firms that do not have goodwill. These findings are robust to size groups, different factor models, and test methods.


Keywords: fair-value accounting, valuation of R&D, goodwill impairment, value premium


JEL Classification: G12, M41, O3



Stock Market Integration, Cost of Equity Capital and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Brazil


David Hillier and Tiago Loncan


Abstract:
We study the effect of stock market integration on the cost of capital and investment, using Brazil as a case study. We show that integration, as proxied by foreign ownership, has a positive impact on the financing side by reducing cost of capital. On the output side, we find that integration increases corporate investment, but only for well-governed firms. We contribute to the debate on the pros and cons of financial globalisation, particularly by providing evidence of important linkages between financial integration and real economic activity.


Keywords: Stock Market Integration; Cost of Capital; International Asset Pricing; Investment


JEL Classification: F65, F61, F36, G15, G12



Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Positions of Traders and Changes in Commodity Futures Prices


Nikolay Gospodinov and Ibrahim Jamali


Abstract:
This paper examines the sensitivity of commodity price changes to monetary policy uncertainty. We find evidence that the response of commodity price changes hinges on the sign of the monetary policy shock, the level of monetary policy uncertainty as well as a recession dummy. Uncertainty associated with negative monetary policy shocks leads to a decrease in commodity prices and excess speculative activity. The results from estimating an asset pricing model suggest that monetary policy uncertainty appears not to be a priced risk factor in the cross-section of commodity price changes.


Keywords: Commodity prices, monetary policy uncertainty, futures data, Fama-Macbeth regression, asset pricing model, futures basis, positions of traders, speculators.


JEL Classification: G13, G14, G17.



An International Analysis of CEO Social Capital and Corporate Risk-Taking


Stephen P. Ferris, David Javakhadze, and Tijana Rajkovic


Abstract:
This study examines the effects of CEO social capital on corporate risk-taking around the world. We document a significant positive relation between CEO social capital and aggregate corporate risk-taking. Further, we find that CEOs with large social capital prefer riskier investment and financial policies. We also determine that the effect of CEO social capital on corporate risk-taking is moderated by the extent of legal protections provided to shareholders, the financial development, and the culture of the country in which a firm is incorporated. Our results are robust to alternative proxies of risk-taking, alternative model specifications, and tests for endogeneity.


Keywords: Social capital, social networks, corporate risk-taking


JEL Classification: G30, Z13



Discounting Methods and Personal Taxes


Michael Dempsey


Abstract:
We advance models of valuation that incorporate personal taxes. The models are general in allowing for uneven cash flows, changes in debt levels, and changes in the costs of equity and debt. The models are mutually consistent and are consistent with the CAPM and Modigliani and Miller propositions allowing personal taxes.


Keywords: valuation, taxes, tax system, CAPM, WACC.p


JEL Classification: G12, G31, G38



Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash


William N. Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim


Abstract:
We study crashes using data from 101 global stock markets from 1698 to 2015. Extremely large, annual stock market declines are typically followed by positive returns. This is not true for smaller declines. This pattern does not appear to be driven by institutional frictions, financial crises, macroeconomic shocks, political conflicts, or survivorship issues.


Keywords:


JEL Classification: G02, G11, G15, G17



CEO Talent: A Dime a Dozen, or Worth Its Weight in Gold?


Nicholas Donatielo, David F. Larcke, and Brian Tayan


Abstract:
Very little sophisticated research exists on the size, quality, and efficiency of the labor market for CEO talent. Our paper sheds light on this labor market by considering the perspectives of directors directly responsible for hiring and firing the CEOs of the largest publicly traded corporations in the U.S. We find that directors overwhelmingly believe that the CEO job is exceptionally challenging and only a handful of executives are qualified to run their company and others in their industry. This suggests that the labor market for outstanding CEO talent is significantly tighter and more competitive than governance experts might realize.


Keywords: CEO labor market, CEO recruitment, CEO succession planning, internal talent development, board of directors, CEO compensation, corporate governance


JEL Classification: G34



Does Size Matter in Predicting Hedge Funds’ Liquidation?


Adrien Becam, Andros Gregoriou, and Jairaj Gupta


Abstract:
In this study, we propose a set of covariates that exploit information content of hedge funds’ relative size, performance, growth, tail risk, and past liquidation rate, in predicting their liquidation. Empirical results show that our proposed covariates exhibit significant predictive power for up to two years even when we control for fund specific characteristics. Furthermore, we estimate separate liquidation prediction models for small, medium, and large funds. Our findings suggest that liquidation likelihood of hedge funds is inversely related to fund size, and statistical significance of factors affecting their liquidation vary across different size categories.


Keywords: hedge fund, liquidation, fund size, failure, default


JEL Classification: G11, G17, G33



The Payback of Mutual Fund Selectivity in European Markets


Feng Dong and John A. Doukas


Abstract:
Is European fund management selectivity skill (1-R2) profitable (alpha)? To examine this question, we use a sample of 2,947 actively-managed domestic equity mutual funds from 11 European countries. We find that high fund selectivity generates significant investor gains. The results are robust to investor sentiment and stock-market dispersion conditions. Moreover, we investigate the moderating effect of country characteristics on the profitability of fund selectivity and find that managers’ selectivity ability is more valuable in countries with high economic development, strong legal system, small but highly liquid equity markets, and young mutual fund industries.


Keywords: European fund selectivity skill, fund manager skill, fund performance


JEL Classification: G11, G14, G20, G23



Pricing Sovereign Debt: Foreign Versus Local Parameters


Michael Bradley, Elisabeth de Fontenay, Irving Arturo de Lira Salvatierra, and Mitu Gulati


Abstract:
Sovereign bonds may be issued under either local or foreign parameters. This decision involves a tradeoff between the sovereign retaining discretion in managing the issue and relinquishing control to third parties. Examining three key bond parameters—governing law, currency, and stock exchange listing—we find that investors generally consider foreign-parameter debt to be less risky than comparable local-parameter debt of the same sovereign. By matching the foreign- and local-parameter bonds of sovereigns that have issued both, we find that, with few exceptions, both investment grade and non-investment grade sovereigns are able to issue their foreign-parameter bonds at relatively lower yields.


Keywords: contracts, asset pricing, bonds, sovereign debt, currency risk, governing law


JEL Classification: F33, F34, G15, K12



There are Two Very Different Accruals Anomalies


Andrew Detzel, Philipp Schaberl and Jack Strauss


Abstract:


Keywords:


JEL Classification: